#4 Martin Truex Jr
Not only does Martin Truex Jr have no momentum going into the final race at Homestead Miami, he also has been on a downward trend after coming up short to Joey Logano in Martinsville. In fact, after Truex Jr’s third place finish at the paper clip, he finished ninth at Texas and 14th at Phoenix, which was one of the worst finishes of any of the final eight competitors. Beyond that, Furniture Row racing is set to shut down at the end of the season and that seems to be working against the team momentum wise as well.
In the end, if this was last season, he would no doubt be the favorite for the title, but he hasn’t proven himself to be very consistent in the playoffs this year and its likely that trend will continue at Homestead. Furthermore, Truex Jr doesn’t even have the best record at Homestead Miami among the championship drivers, which is another example of what he is at a distant disadvantage. Of course things could always change and Truex Jr could get that story book ending him and his team are looking for, but its going to take a lot of luck for that to happen.