#1 Not a great homestead record.
Let’s be honest here.
Even if Chase Elliott does manage to overcome a 30 point deficit and make his way into the final four at Homestead Miami , he is stil going to have to overcome a less than steller record at the track in order to win the title. In fact, statistically speaking, Chase Elliott is behind several of his championship competitors when it comes to Homestead Miami.
For example, if you look at driver averages over the last two races at Homestead Miami, you will see that Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Joey Logano all have better records than he does. Of course if you take a look at the all time win list and look at those averages, Elliott stands second to Kevin Harvick, but even that’s not that great of a situation.
With that being said, the winner of The Championship the last four years has been the driver that has won the race and it honestly dose’t feel like Chase Elliott is capable of that yet. Maybe that would be different if drivers like Aric Almirola, Clint Bowyer or Kurt Busch were the other contenders in the final three, but not up agaisnt the big three and Joey Logano.